Why Door Count Planning Is Different from Regular Forecasting
Growing your retail footprint is one of the most effective ways to scale a CPG brand. Moving from 200 stores to 2,000 stores doesn't require 10x the product development effort—it requires 10x the inventory planning effort.
Here's the thing about retail expansion: it's rarely smooth or predictable. Buyers add stores in waves. Distribution timelines shift. Some stores don't set on time. Others exceed expectations. If your inventory planning treats expansion like a light switch—off one day, on the next—you're going to have problems.
The brands that scale successfully build door count expansion into their forecasting process as a distinct planning challenge, not an afterthought.
Understanding How Retail Distribution Expands
Before you can forecast for expansion, you need to understand how retailers actually grow your distribution.
Phased Rollouts
Most retail expansions don't happen all at once. Instead, retailers add stores in phases:
- Pilot phase: 50-100 stores in a region to test performance
- Regional expansion: If pilot succeeds, expand to 500-1,000 stores regionally
- National rollout: If regional works, expand nationally to 2,000+ stores
Each phase requires its own inventory plan. The pilot might happen quickly, but the full rollout could take 6-12 months.
Authorization vs. Distribution Timing
Getting "authorized" in new stores doesn't mean product appears on shelves immediately. There's typically a lag:
- Authorization: Buyer approves adding your product to new stores
- Set date: Retailer schedules when stores should add your product to the shelf set
- Actual distribution: Physical product appears on shelves (sometimes 2-4 weeks after set date)
Your forecast needs to account for this lag. Don't plan full inventory until you have confirmed set dates.
Store-Level Variability
Not all stores in an expansion will perform equally. Stores in high-traffic urban areas might hit full velocity in week one. Rural or lower-volume stores might take months to build sales. Plan for this variability rather than assuming uniform performance.
Building Your Expansion Forecast
With an understanding of how expansion works, here's how to forecast inventory needs.
The Basic Expansion Formula
Expansion Inventory = New Doors × Estimated Velocity × Weeks of Coverage × Ramp Factor
Let's break down each component.
Estimating Velocity for New Doors
For stores in the same retailer where you have existing distribution, use your historical velocity as a starting point:
- If current stores average 3.0 USPW, new stores will likely be similar
- Adjust up or down based on the demographics of new stores vs. existing stores
- If expanding to a completely different store format, be more conservative
For a new retailer where you have no history, use benchmarks from similar retailers or be conservative with 0.5-1.0 USPW until you have data.
Weeks of Coverage Planning
For expansion inventory, plan for more weeks of coverage than your steady-state replenishment:
- Initial pipeline fill: 2-3 weeks of inventory to get product into distribution centers and on shelves
- Operating inventory: 4-6 weeks of forward coverage for normal replenishment
- Expansion buffer: 2-3 additional weeks because new distribution is inherently less predictable
Total: 8-12 weeks of coverage for expansion inventory
The Velocity Ramp Factor
New stores don't hit full velocity immediately. Build a ramp into your forecast:
- Weeks 1-2: Plan for 50% of target velocity (customers discovering your product)
- Weeks 3-4: Plan for 75% of target velocity (word of mouth building)
- Weeks 5+: Plan for 100% of target velocity (steady state)
This ramp factor prevents you from over-investing in inventory that won't turn quickly in the early weeks.
A Real-World Expansion Example
Let's walk through a complete example.
The Scenario
Your brand currently sells in 500 stores at a major grocery chain with 2.5 USPW velocity. You've just been authorized to expand to 1,500 additional stores, with set dates over 3 months:
- Month 1: 500 new stores
- Month 2: 500 new stores
- Month 3: 500 new stores
Your production lead time is 6 weeks and you need to have inventory ready 2 weeks before each set date.
Month 1 Expansion Calculation
500 stores × 2.5 USPW (estimated) × 10 weeks coverage = 12,500 units
Applying the ramp factor for weighted average velocity over 10 weeks:
- Weeks 1-2: 50% × 2.5 = 1.25 USPW
- Weeks 3-4: 75% × 2.5 = 1.875 USPW
- Weeks 5-10: 100% × 2.5 = 2.5 USPW
Weighted average: approximately 2.1 USPW
Adjusted calculation: 500 × 2.1 × 10 = 10,500 units for Month 1 expansion
Total Expansion Inventory
Repeating this calculation for each month and adding existing store replenishment:
- Month 1 expansion: 10,500 units
- Month 2 expansion: 10,500 units
- Month 3 expansion: 10,500 units
- Existing 500 stores replenishment: ongoing
Total incremental expansion inventory over 3 months: 31,500 units
Production Timing
With 6-week production lead time and 2-week pre-set requirement:
- Month 1 set: Need production complete 8 weeks before → Start production now
- Month 2 set: Need production complete 4 weeks before Month 1 set
- Month 3 set: Need production complete 4 weeks before Month 2 set
You might need to increase production capacity significantly for 2-3 months to build expansion inventory while maintaining existing replenishment.
Common Door Count Planning Mistakes
Treating Expansion Like Steady-State
The biggest mistake is applying your normal weeks of supply target to expansion. If you normally keep 6 weeks of inventory but expansion requires 10 weeks, you'll stockout during the critical launch period.
Ignoring Lead Time Reality
If your expansion happens faster than your production lead time allows, you have a problem. Many brands get exciting expansion news only to realize they can't produce enough inventory in time.
Solution: Build expansion scenarios into your production planning even before you have confirmed commitments. Know what your "expansion readiness" inventory level should be.
Not Communicating with Your Buyer
Your retail buyer can give you advance warning of expansion plans—but only if you ask. Regular business reviews should include questions like:
- "Are there any expansion opportunities we should be planning for?"
- "What would we need to demonstrate to earn more distribution?"
- "What's the typical timeline from authorization to store set?"
Forgetting About Existing Stores
When you're focused on expansion, it's easy to under-order for existing stores. Make sure your forecast maintains steady replenishment for your current base while building expansion inventory.
Tools for Door Count Planning
Effective door count planning requires systems that can handle this complexity.
What to Track
Your planning system should track:
- Authorized store count (where you're approved to sell)
- Active store count (where you're currently on shelf)
- Pipeline store count (approved but not yet set)
- Set dates by store or by wave
- Velocity by store tier or region
Scenario Planning
You need the ability to model different expansion scenarios:
- What if we get 500 stores instead of 300?
- What if set dates slip by 4 weeks?
- What if initial velocity is 30% lower than expected?
Running these scenarios before expansion helps you prepare for variability.
Production Capacity Integration
Your door count planning needs to connect to your production capacity. Expansion forecasts that exceed your production capabilities are useless. Build capacity constraints into your planning.
Key Takeaways
- Retail expansion requires different forecasting than steady-state replenishment
- Build 8-12 weeks of coverage for expansion inventory, not your normal 4-6 weeks
- Apply a velocity ramp factor—new stores don't hit full velocity immediately
- Start production 8+ weeks before set dates to account for lead times
- Communicate regularly with buyers about expansion timelines
- Maintain replenishment for existing stores while building expansion inventory
Frequently Asked Questions
How far in advance should I start planning for retail expansion?
Start planning at least 12 weeks before expected set dates. This gives you 6-8 weeks for production plus 2-4 weeks of buffer for shipping and potential delays. For major expansions that exceed your normal production capacity, you may need 16+ weeks of advance planning.
What if the retailer changes the expansion timeline?
Build flexibility into your plan. If your expansion inventory is produced but the set date slips, you'll have higher inventory carrying costs but won't miss the launch. If the timeline accelerates, having expansion inventory in production is better than starting from scratch.
Should I use the same velocity assumption for new stores as existing stores?
Use your existing velocity as a starting point, but adjust based on the characteristics of new stores. If your existing distribution is in high-volume urban stores and expansion includes more suburban or rural locations, plan for lower initial velocity.
How do I handle multiple expansions happening simultaneously?
Create separate inventory builds for each expansion wave. Track them independently in your forecast, with separate set dates, velocity assumptions, and coverage targets. Roll them up to total demand for production planning.
What's the biggest risk in door count planning?
The biggest risk is stockouts during your launch period. Missing shelf sets or being out of stock when customers first look for your product damages your velocity metrics and your relationship with the buyer. Over-invest in launch inventory rather than risking a stockout.